sexta-feira, 10 de julho de 2015

2015 List: Mathematical Prediction: Boy Edition

Do you also get baby name blues after the release of the new baby name rank? I do, especially after all of the interesting bits of data have been analyzed. Then you're left with a big bowl of emptiness, and you're longing already for the next rank, which is still far far away. But don't worry, I've got you covered. While not the real list, obviously, since I'm not a futurologist, they are just some fun predictions of what mathematically would happen next year, if the names increased or decreased the same amount as the year before.

For boys, this is what the top 20 would look like:

01 Noah (=)
02 Liam (=)

03 Mason (=)
04 William (+1)

05 Alexander (+3)
06 Jacob (-2)
07 Michael (=)
08 James (+1)
09 Ethan (-3)
10 Logan (+3)
11 Benjamin +1)
12 Elijah (-1)
13 Daniel (-3)
14 Aiden (=)
15 Lucas (+4)
16 Matthew (=)
17 David (+1)
18 Joseph (+2)
19 Jackson (-2)
20 Carter (+7)

Next years ranking would look pretty stale, at least the top 20. Only Logan would join the top 10, booting off the overused Daniel, and the sole new entry to the top 20 would be Carter, which to me seems like so 10 years ago that I'm surprised its still got all this momentum. Noah should easily retain his #1 spot, as it seems to be climbing further in terms of numbers. However, Liam could cause some surprises.

Now onto the biggest climbers:

21 Oliver (+11)
24 Sebastian (+10)
49 Grayson (+15)
70 Hudson (+10)
73 Nolan (+8)
74 Lincoln (+13)
78 Jaxson (+7)
86 Asher (+7)

And the biggest fallers:

23 Jayden (-8)
50 Aaron (-10)
72 Brayden (-10)
83 Ayden (-9)
85 Tyler (-13)
94 Blake (-11)

Wow, there's no stopping Oliver it seems. The others seem right on trend, with the exception of Jaxson which would still be rising even when all the other spellings are now stalling or even falling. Sebastian seems to be ticking all the right boxes, and is multicultural, which is part of its appeal. The fallers are all names I considered to be dated or that have had its moment to shine and are now making way for newer names. But then, I have the same opinion about names like Charles and Robert and those seem to be reclimbing unfortunately...
And look at all the -ayden names taking a plunge. The only exception is Kayden which according to my calculations would rise another 6 places to #84. I think that's more due to the fact that parents are opting to choose this spelling over the other ones - I think its overall numbers are dwindling.

And now the new entries to the top 100:

96 Ezra 
97 Sawyer
98 Elias
100 Roman

A very diverse mix here. Latin flaired Elias and Roman, biblical Ezra, and rising stars Sawyer. They would knock off Justin, Juan, Luis and Camden. The only one I dont think will actually fall off is Camden, I just think it had a bad year in 2013, but should reclimb this year. Instead, I think Nathaniel will take its place and fall off rather than being at #99.

Dont rule out the chance for Theodore, Leonardo, Miles, Harrison, Santiago or Mateo from joining the top 100, these are just outside in my calculations, and all it takes is some extra push. The new Disney tv series will feature a princess Elena with a side character names Mateo - a good example of how a name could rise quicker than what it normally would.

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