sábado, 25 de agosto de 2012

2012 List: Mathematical Prediction

Last year in September, I did a mathematical prediction for the list published this May, and now I'm doing one for the one released next year.
If you didn't read my post last year, basically what I did was look at the number of babies born with a certain boy name, see how much it increased and decreased from the previous year, and apply those changes to the new ranking. Like I said last year, we never know if a name will continue to rise or start to fall, since things change year to year, but it's all in good fun.

So let's look at the future ranking of 2012, if names performed exactly the way they did in 2011:

01 MASON (+1)
02 JACOB (-1)
03 WILLIAM (=)
04 NOAH (+1)
05 JAYDEN (-1)

06 MICHAEL (=)
07 LIAM (+8)
08 AIDEN (+1)
09 ETHAN (-2)
10 DANIEL (=)
12 MATTHEW (=)
13 ELIJAH (=)
14 BENJAMIN (+5)
15 ANTHONY (-4)
16 JACKSON (+7)
17 JAMES (=)
18 ANDREW (-2)
19 DAVID (-1)
20 JOSHUA (-6)

Biggest increases:

42 HENRY (+15)
45 ELI (+13)
55 LEVI (+11)
58 AYDEN (+12)
61 BENTLEY (+14)
86 EASTON (+16)
88 JACE (+16)
94 RYDER (+14)
98 AXEL (+34)

So Mason is pretty much certain to top the chart, and Liam is guaranteed a top10 placing.

Things get more interesting near the bottom of the chart:

90 NOLAN (+3)
91 TRISTAN (-4)
92 GRAYSON (+5)
93 BRYSON (+5)
94 RYDER (+14)
95 LUIS (-7)
96 KAYDEN (+9)
97 JUAN (-8)
98 AXEL (+34)
99 VINCENT (+2)
100 MAX (-4)

101 HUDSON (+12)
102 ASHER (+12)
103 JESUS (-10)
104 MICAH (+1)
105 ASHTON (+5)
106 MILES (+10)
107 CARLOS (-15)
108 JAXSON (+33)
109 COLE (-14)
110 ALEX (-14)

So besides Jace and Easton, we'd have new top100 entries from Ryder, Kayden, Axel and Vicent. The numbers however are so tight, that Hudson, Asher, Micah and Miles could possibly enter instead of them. Watch out for Jaxson and Rylan as well. Of course nothing is guaranteed, and we don't know for sure if Luis, Juan, Max or Jesus will hold on to their spots or fall off, but I think Diego, Jaden, Alex, Cole and Carlos have no chance of keeping their top100 status, unless they have a miraculous recovery.
It seems like it'll be a bloodbath to fill the last few sposts in the all important top100, and I'd like to think we'll have at the very least 5 new entries to this part of the chart -  which ones will make it is a lot harder to predict. Either way, it seems like even if only 4 or 5 make it this year, there are several names ready to make the top100 the year after, so we'll have approximately 10 new names in the top100 in just 2 years. Hopefully I won't be disappointed, I really do think we need fresh blood in the boys upper chart.

I have noticed one thing, hispanic names like Jose, Angel, Diego, Carlos, etc, are plummeting down the charts. Are hispanic people having less kids or simply looking for other options? It's in interesting trend to keep watching.

2 comentários:

  1. I think the main reason why there are fewer Hispanic names showing is because with the rough economy and job market, there are fewer of them coming in since there aren't as many jobs for them. I said this on Baby Name Wizard when the last SSA list came out in May, but if we ever get a law or constitutional amendment doing away with automatic birthright citizenship, I'm predicting that many of the Hispanic names will drop A LOT when it takes effect (once we stop having "anchor babies").

  2. Thanks for your explanation Kelly, it does make sense that less hispanics are migrating to the US nowadays.
    My other thought was perhaps they are starting to use more american names? Over the last couple of years I've started to see more and more hispanics getting named Jayden and similar names