quarta-feira, 3 de setembro de 2014

2014 List: Mathematical Prediction: Boy Edition

So here it is, the mathematically accurate predictions of what the 2014 boy ranking may look like. Remember, these aren't to be taken too seriously, as I've explained to you before. If last years increases and decreases remained the same this year, this is how the 2014 rank would look like:

01 Liam (+1)
02 Noah (-1)
03 Jacob (=)
04 William (+1)
05 Mason (-1)

06 Michael (+1)
07 Ethan (-1)
08 Alexander (=)
09 Daniel (+1)
10 Benjamin (+4)
11 James (+2)
12 Elijah (-1)
13 Matthew (+2)
14 Jayden (-5)
15 Jackson (+1)
16 Lucas (+7)
17 Aiden (-5)
18 Logan (-1)
19 David (-1)
20 Joseph (=)

Part of me is hoping that this doesn't come true. As you all know, I really do not like overused names, and seeing Michael, Daniel, James and Matthew all climbing back up is my equivalent of a name-nightmare. Other than that, we would have a new #1 name with Liam taking the pole position, unsurprising for most of us I believe. Benjamin would be the sole new entry to the top 10, and Lucas the only new addition to the top 20. Really stale don't you agree? One interesting observation: the -ayden trend seems to be plummeting now, with both Jayden and Aiden tumbling 5 spots.

And now the big climbers:

42 Oliver (+10)
45 Jace (+21)
46 Jase (+43)
54 Josiah (+15)
65 Grayson (+13)
77 Easton (+11)
79 Jaxson (+13)
81 Camden (+18)
84 Lincoln (+11)

On the other hand, these would take a dive:

40 Ryan (-10)
59 Gavin (-10)
66 Brayden (-18)
68 Evan (-13)
74 Tyler (-11)
83 Zachary (-10)

Only 4 names would make enter or reenter the top 100:

94 Mateo
96 Silas
98 Leo
100 Maxwell

Therefore the names Justin, Luis, Tristan and Juan would be booted off.

Of the new entries, I think the first 3 are guaranteed, no so sure on Maxwell. It doesn't seem to be trending as much as the others, it'll probably just miss out, or get bypassed by some other trendy name. I mean, there might be a celeb baby name this year that could boost a name, or even a movie. Lincoln and Camden got big gains last year for those reasons.

The falling names all seem to be part of the 90s pack, with the exception of Brayden which is explained by the deflating -ayden bandwagon. While some of those 90s names are getting dated, I can't believe we're gonna get rid of those sooner than names like John, Charles or Robert, which seem so dated and middle aged man to me. It's quite frustrating actually, and I think the "junior" or "son named after dad" policy plays a big part in keeping those names around, or at least as high as they are. I just wish the exchange of fresh blood for dated blood was quicker on the boys ranking.

Which movies, tv character names or celeb babies do you think we should keep an eye out for possible super boosters this year? Maybe the movie Noah will keep the name at the top spot for another year, blocking out Liam again. Kourtney Kardashian is due in December, so it wont impact this years chart, but the name she chooses will surely generate a big buzz in 2015.

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