sábado, 17 de setembro de 2011

2011 List: Mathematical Prediction

This Summer, I had some extra time to spare, and I thought about comparing the popularity change of the boy names between 2009 and 2010, based on the number of babies born, and use those numbers to predict the 2011 ranking. I did round up the numbers to make things easier for me, otherwise it would've taken me way too many hours.
So this is how the 2011 list would look, if the names this year had the same change (whether positive or negative) as last year:

01 Jacob (=)
02 Mason (+10)
03 Jayden (+1)
04 Ethan (-2)
05 William (=)

06 Noah (+1)
07 Michael (-4)
08 Alexander (-2)
09 Aiden (=)
10 Elijah (+10)
11 Anthony (-1)
12 Logan (+5)
13 Daniel (-5)
14 Andrew (=)
15 James (+4)
16 Liam (+14)
17 Joshua (-6)
18 Gabriel (+3)
19 David (-4)
20 Joseph (=)

Biggest increases further down (+10):

31 Luke (+10)
33 Eli (+27)
57 Bentley (+44)
58 Levi (+12)
88 Jaxon (+11)
89 Miles (+48)
90 Grayson (+32)
91 Bryson (+29)
94 Easton (+51)
99 Giovanni (+15)

Obviously this would only be 100% reliable if names in 2011 behaved the exact same way as they did in 2010 - which they wont. Some names that climbed a lot might slow down or even start falling, and vice versa. We also don't know which names may start trending all of a sudden due to reality tv, celebrities, etc. For example, Mason had a huge increase due to its newfound celebrity status. I seriously doubt that this year it's increase will be that huge again (although it should end up in the top10). However, it does give you a slight indication of where certain names might end next year, or at least the direction they're going.

Interesting for me, was noticing that the vast majority of boy names are actually falling in numbers, especially in the top100, proving that parents are slowly losing interest in the overpopular names, and trying to go for something a little more unique. I say good for them!

I shall be doing soon, maybe near the end of the year, my own predictions for 2011, based on what I assume will be the top10 rank, and the trendiest names of the year. Hope you're looking forward to it!

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